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Model registry history Every Voidly Atlas machine-learning model that has been trained or promoted, with honest LOCO metrics, top features, and notes. Most recent on top. Filter by model type below.
Raw JSON · /atlas/models (per-model deep dive)
All Classifier Forecast Sentinel Anomaly Other
What this forecast is — and is not The 7-day forecast is a current-regime risk signal : it reliably tells you which countries are currently in a sustained internet-blocking regime. It is not a shutdown-onset predictor — it does not reliably call a new shutdown before it happens.
On an honest forward-temporal split (train on the past, test only on the strictly-future window) the production model scores AUC 0.589 on its raw label — near chance. The label target_7day is a 7-day sliding window , so it is 98.9% autocorrelated day-to-day. A trivial predict-yesterday baseline scores AUC 0.957 — high numbers here mean “what is blocked stays blocked,” not predictive skill. On the rows where a shutdown actually begins (transitions) the forecast scores AUC ~0.33 — below chance . Use it to see where censorship is entrenched today and to read the SHAP drivers + conformal interval — not as an early-warning siren. Read the full honest re-evaluation →
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