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Forecast v2 contagion: huge aggregate wins, IR regresses 27pp. Held back.
Applied the classifier v3.3 regime-weighted-contagion playbook to the XGBoost forecast model. Stratified F1 +4.9pp, LOCO median F1 +17.8pp (! — bigger than classifier got), 15 of 19 countries improve. But Iran — a flagship country — regresses 27.4pp F1 because its neighbors have no positive…
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Applied the classifier v3.3 regime-weighted-contagion playbook to the XGBoost forecast model. Stratified F1 +4.9pp, LOCO median F1 +17.8pp (! — bigger than classifier got), 15 of 19 countries improve. But Iran — a flagship country — regresses 27.4pp F1 because its neighbors have no positive correlation. Honest no-promote.
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