voidly
RU · per-country backtest

Russia forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Russia, plotted against what actually happened. 112 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
112
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
75.9%
85/112 correct
Brier score
0.325
lower is better
Observed positive rate
58%
mean predicted 23%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Aug 6

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 112 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Aug 631.8%—no event✓
Aug 529.8%—no event✓
Aug 447.0%—no event✓
Aug 325.6%—no event✓
Aug 249.0%—no event✓
Aug 150.4%—no event✓
Jul 3163.4%↑shutdown✓
Jul 3061.3%↑shutdown✓
Jul 2958.7%↑shutdown✓
Jul 2865.9%↑shutdown✓
Jul 2768.9%↑shutdown✓
Jul 2676.4%↑shutdown✓
Jul 2551.2%↑shutdown✓
Jul 2449.6%↑shutdown✓
Jul 2350.7%↑shutdown✓
Jul 2258.3%↑shutdown✓
Jul 2173.0%↑shutdown✓
Jul 2051.2%↑shutdown✓
Jul 1965.4%↑shutdown✓
Jul 1850.1%↑shutdown✓
Jul 1728.9%↑shutdown✓
Jul 1635.7%↑shutdown✓
Jul 1529.5%↑shutdown✓
Jul 1450.3%↑shutdown✓
Jul 1330.1%↑shutdown✓
Jul 1231.2%↑shutdown✓
Jul 1131.6%↑shutdown✓
Jul 1034.0%↑shutdown✓
Jul 948.1%↑shutdown✓
Jul 848.1%↑shutdown✓
Jul 738.5%↑shutdown✓
Jul 639.6%↑shutdown✓
Jul 551.3%↑shutdown✓
Jul 451.3%↑shutdown✓
Jul 377.5%↑shutdown✓
Jul 251.2%↑shutdown✓
Jul 158.5%↑shutdown✓
Jun 3077.3%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2946.1%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2867.2%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2762.9%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2650.6%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2554.3%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2449.4%↑no event✗
Jun 2348.0%↑no event✗
Jun 2258.8%↑no event✗
Jun 214.5%—no event✓
Jun 202.4%—no event✓
Jun 194.9%—no event✓
Jun 182.2%—no event✓
Jun 174.4%—no event✓
Jun 163.2%—no event✓
Jun 153.5%—no event✓
Jun 143.7%—no event✓
Jun 134.8%—no event✓
Jun 125.0%↑no event✗
Jun 114.9%—no event✓
Jun 104.5%—no event✓
Jun 94.7%—no event✓
Jun 85.0%↑no event✗

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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