Atlas · closed-loop active learning
Help the classifier learn
These are the 36 recent forecasts the classifier is least sure about — predictions sitting near the 0.5 decision threshold. Each one is a high-value labeling opportunity: a single confirmed outcome here teaches the model more than ten labels on easy cases.
Click any candidate to see its full SHAP breakdown, evidence permalinks, and an anonymous label-suggestion form. No login. No personal data required. Three independent reviewers must agree before a label is promoted into the next retrain dataset.
Method: Impact-aware ranking — Settles 2009 (UW TR-1648). Uncertainty fallback — Lewis 1994. Calibrated uncertainty — arXiv 2510.03162 (2025). · Refreshed every 15 min · Raw JSON · Methodology
uncertainty = 1 - |p - 0.5| × 2 · Lewis & Gale 1994
How submissions become labels
- You read the evidence, pick a label, and submit anonymously.
- Submission lands in an append-only audit log (
active_learning_submissions.jsonl). Nothing is overwritten or deleted. - Once 3+ independent reviewers agree on the same candidate, the daily aggregator promotes a consensus label.
- The next weekly classifier retrain consumes the consensus file and gates promotion as usual.
Privacy: contact email is optional and only stored in the audit log — never echoed in any read endpoint and stripped from the consensus output. Your IP is hashed for spam-flood detection only (16-hex truncated SHA-256, useless for re-identification).
60 candidate forecasts — ranked by uncertainty
PhilippinesPH
Invalid Date
Probability
50%
Distance
0.1pp
Impact
0.03
unc 1.00 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.04
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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GBGB
Invalid Date
Probability
50%
Distance
0.4pp
Impact
0.22
unc 0.99 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.32
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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LebanonLB
Invalid Date
Probability
51%
Distance
0.7pp
Impact
0.73
unc 0.99 × vol 0.74 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
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IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
51%
Distance
0.7pp
Impact
0.59
unc 0.99 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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JPJP
Invalid Date
Probability
51%
Distance
0.8pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.98 × vol 0.68 × drift 0.05
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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ESES
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
0.8pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.98 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
ESES
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
0.8pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.98 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
South KoreaKR
Invalid Date
Probability
51%
Distance
1.0pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.98 × vol 0.68 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
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PakistanPK
Invalid Date
Probability
51%
Distance
1.0pp
Impact
0.92
unc 0.98 × vol 0.94 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
51%
Distance
1.2pp
Impact
0.58
unc 0.98 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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PakistanPK
Invalid Date
Probability
51%
Distance
1.2pp
Impact
0.92
unc 0.98 × vol 0.94 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
ESES
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
1.3pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.97 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
ESES
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
1.3pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.97 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
MexicoMX
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
1.3pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.97 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
MexicoMX
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
1.3pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.97 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
South KoreaKR
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
1.4pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.97 × vol 0.68 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
MexicoMX
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
1.5pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.97 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
MexicoMX
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
1.5pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.97 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
PakistanPK
Invalid Date
Probability
52%
Distance
1.7pp
Impact
0.91
unc 0.97 × vol 0.94 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
52%
Distance
1.7pp
Impact
0.58
unc 0.97 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
South KoreaKR
Invalid Date
Probability
48%
Distance
1.7pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.97 × vol 0.68 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
ESES
Invalid Date
Probability
48%
Distance
1.8pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.96 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SudanSD
May 29, 2026
Probability
48%
Distance
1.9pp
Impact
0.02
unc 0.96 × vol 0.42 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
SudanSD
May 28, 2026
Probability
48%
Distance
2.0pp
Impact
0.02
unc 0.96 × vol 0.42 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
CACA
Invalid Date
Probability
52%
Distance
2.1pp
Impact
0.05
unc 0.96 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.08
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
South KoreaKR
Invalid Date
Probability
48%
Distance
2.3pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.95 × vol 0.68 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
CubaCU
Invalid Date
Probability
48%
Distance
2.4pp
Impact
0.16
unc 0.95 × vol 0.75 × drift 0.22
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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SGSG
Invalid Date
Probability
48%
Distance
2.4pp
Impact
0.67
unc 0.95 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
53%
Distance
2.5pp
Impact
0.57
unc 0.95 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
53%
Distance
2.5pp
Impact
0.57
unc 0.95 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
Probability
47%
Distance
2.7pp
Impact
0.67
unc 0.95 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Invalid Date
Probability
53%
Distance
2.8pp
Impact
0.94
unc 0.94 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
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IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
53%
Distance
2.9pp
Impact
0.56
unc 0.94 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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GBGB
Invalid Date
Probability
53%
Distance
2.9pp
Impact
0.20
unc 0.94 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.32
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
47%
Distance
2.9pp
Impact
0.56
unc 0.94 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
VenezuelaVE
Invalid Date
Probability
47%
Distance
3.0pp
Impact
0.87
unc 0.94 × vol 0.92 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
46%
Distance
3.5pp
Impact
0.56
unc 0.93 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
GBGB
Invalid Date
Probability
54%
Distance
3.8pp
Impact
0.20
unc 0.92 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.32
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
JOJO
Invalid Date
Probability
46%
Distance
3.9pp
Impact
0.33
unc 0.92 × vol 0.78 × drift 0.47
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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VenezuelaVE
Invalid Date
Probability
46%
Distance
3.9pp
Impact
0.85
unc 0.92 × vol 0.92 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
KWKW
Invalid Date
Probability
54%
Distance
3.9pp
Impact
0.40
unc 0.92 × vol 0.64 × drift 0.69
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
54%
Distance
4.2pp
Impact
0.55
unc 0.92 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
Probability
46%
Distance
4.5pp
Impact
0.64
unc 0.91 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
SudanSD
May 27, 2026
Probability
46%
Distance
4.5pp
Impact
0.02
unc 0.91 × vol 0.42 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
Probability
45%
Distance
4.5pp
Impact
0.64
unc 0.91 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
Jun 13, 2026
Probability
45%
Distance
4.6pp
Impact
0.82
unc 0.91 × vol 0.90 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
Jun 14, 2026
Probability
45%
Distance
4.8pp
Impact
0.82
unc 0.90 × vol 0.90 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SudanSD
May 31, 2026
Probability
45%
Distance
4.8pp
Impact
0.02
unc 0.90 × vol 0.42 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
CACA
Invalid Date
Probability
55%
Distance
4.8pp
Impact
0.05
unc 0.90 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.08
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
Jun 5, 2026
Probability
45%
Distance
4.9pp
Impact
0.81
unc 0.90 × vol 0.90 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
Jun 10, 2026
Probability
45%
Distance
5.0pp
Impact
0.81
unc 0.90 × vol 0.90 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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EgyptEG
Jun 4, 2026
Probability
45%
Distance
5.0pp
Impact
0.81
unc 0.90 × vol 0.90 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
May 31, 2026
Probability
45%
Distance
5.0pp
Impact
0.81
unc 0.90 × vol 0.90 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
TNTN
Invalid Date
Probability
45%
Distance
5.0pp
Impact
0.05
unc 0.90 × vol 0.67 × drift 0.09
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
45%
Distance
5.1pp
Impact
0.54
unc 0.90 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
IQIQ
Invalid Date
Probability
45%
Distance
5.1pp
Impact
0.35
unc 0.90 × vol 0.88 × drift 0.44
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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EgyptEG
May 25, 2026
Probability
45%
Distance
5.1pp
Impact
0.81
unc 0.90 × vol 0.90 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
TNTN
Invalid Date
Probability
45%
Distance
5.1pp
Impact
0.05
unc 0.90 × vol 0.67 × drift 0.09
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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SGSG
Invalid Date
Probability
45%
Distance
5.2pp
Impact
0.63
unc 0.90 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
May 26, 2026
Probability
45%
Distance
5.2pp
Impact
0.81
unc 0.90 × vol 0.90 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
Related
- Impact-aware ranking methodology — why we replaced uncertainty-only sorting with a 3-factor heuristic EER
- /sentinel/labeling — read-only queue view with API-key submission flow
- /atlas/changelog — model registry / retrain history
- /methodology — retrain gate logic
- Settles 2009 — Active Learning Literature Survey (UW TR-1648)
- Calibrated Uncertainty Sampling (arXiv 2510.03162)