One alert.
All the context.

Lebanon sat above Sentinel’s alert threshold for the week before the April 24 outage — one honest case

On 2026-04-17 the Voidly Sentinel forecast for Lebanon crossed its 0.05 alert threshold (p ≈ 0.07) and stayed above it; a week later, on 2026-04-24, IODA flagged a critical BGP connectivity drop in North Lebanon. We publish this as an illustrative worked example of the alert mechanism — forecast → threshold cross → citable evidence — NOT as proof of lead-time skill, which the model’s own within-country timing validation puts near chance for a chronically-unstable network like Lebanon.