Current-regime shutdown risk by country
30 watched countries, ranked by the calibrated 7-day risk level. This ranking tells you where censorship is entrenched right now — it is not a list of countries about to go dark. The forecast is post-isotonic recalibrated as of 2026-05-20 — predictions in the [0, 0.10) band are now lifted ~15× to match observed outcomes. See /sentinel/backtest for the honest calibration plot.
Updated every 30 min · last refresh Jun 15, 2026 · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON
Full ranking
- High · 95%
PakistanPK
Peak day 0d out · above threshold (80%) · see SHAP + evidence →
- High · 63%
UzbekistanUZ
Peak day 4d out · above threshold (5%) · see SHAP + evidence →
- Elevated · 44%
EgyptEG
Peak day 5d out · above threshold (5%) · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 6%
ThailandTH
Peak day 7d out · above threshold (5%) · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 6%
BelarusBY
Peak day 7d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
KazakhstanKZ
Peak day 7d out · above threshold (5%) · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
BrazilBR
Peak day 6d out · above threshold (5%) · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
SudanSD
Peak day 6d out · above threshold (5%) · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
PhilippinesPH
Peak day 7d out · above threshold (5%) · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
ChinaCN
Peak day 7d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
IndonesiaID
Peak day 6d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
EritreaER
Peak day 6d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
NigeriaNG
Peak day 7d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
IranIR
Peak day 7d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
North KoreaKP
Peak day 7d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 5%
TurkeyTR
Peak day 5d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 4%
EthiopiaET
Peak day 4d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 4%
SyriaSY
Peak day 7d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 4%
MalaysiaMY
Peak day 3d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 4%
TurkmenistanTM
Peak day 6d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 4%
VenezuelaVE
Peak day 5d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 4%
LebanonLB
Peak day 4d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 4%
IndiaIN
Peak day 7d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 4%
BangladeshBD
Peak day 3d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 4%
MyanmarMM
Peak day 4d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 4%
RussiaRU
Peak day 7d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 3%
CubaCU
Peak day 6d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 3%
Saudi ArabiaSA
Peak day 5d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 3%
NicaraguaNI
Peak day 4d out · see SHAP + evidence →
- Low · 2%
VietnamVN
Peak day 6d out · see SHAP + evidence →
How to read this page
- Max risk is the highest daily forecast probability in the next 7 days for that country. Click into
/atlas/forecast/[cc]for the full 8-day chart + SHAP drivers + evidence. - Calibration — predictions for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries are run through an isotonic calibrator fit on 810 live (predicted, observed) pairs. The other ~120 countries get the raw model output.
- Honesty — the model isn't magic. On an honest forward-temporal split it scores AUC ~0.59 and has no skill at calling a new shutdown before onset (transition-row AUC ~0.33). See the forecast onset-skill finding, /sentinel/backtest for current Brier score / per-bin Δ, and /methodology#validation for the honest splits.
- Subscribe — push delivery via webhooks at /alerts, or hit
POST /v1/forecast/batchfor programmatic access.
Related
- /atlas/forecast-regions — per-region aggregate 7d forecast (Africa, Asia, MENA, etc.)
- /atlas/elections — 90-day election shutdown risk (subset of this index)
- /atlas/recent-changes — daily journalist dashboard with delta highlights
- /sentinel/calibration — 90-day rolling empirical coverage time series
- /sentinel/backtest — reliability diagram + per-country backtest