Is censorship rising in Africa, Asia, MENA?
A single aggregate 7-day shutdown-risk level per region — evidence-volume-weighted mean of the per-country forecasts. Use this for the regional headline; click through to a region for the per-country dispersion. Because it aggregates the per-country v1 forecast, it inherits the same scope: a current-regime signal, not an onset predictor.
Generated 2026-06-15 06:30 UTC · region-forecast v1 · regions API · methodology API
Regions ranked by aggregate 7-day risk
Each row is one region. The bar shows the weighted average probability (max risk over the next 7 days, evidence-weighted across the region's countries). Max and min point to the highest- and lowest-risk constituent country.
| Region | Countries | Weighted avg 7d | Max country | Min country | # ≥25% | # ≥50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Africa africa | 30 | 15.7% | Egypt EG 45.1% | Zambia ZM 3.2% | 1 | 0 |
| Asia asia | 49 | 10.3% | Pakistan PK 95.0% | Vietnam VN 2.7% | 2 | 2 |
| World world | 148 | 9.4% | Pakistan PK 95.0% | Albania AL 2.6% | 3 | 2 |
| MENA mena | 19 | 9.3% | Egypt EG 43.7% | Tunisia TN 3.3% | 1 | 0 |
| Americas americas | 23 | 4.3% | Haiti HT 5.6% | Nicaragua NI 3.2% | 0 | 0 |
| Europe europe | 39 | 4.3% | Belarus BY 5.9% | Albania AL 2.6% | 0 | 0 |
| Oceania oceania | 7 | 3.5% | Papua New Guinea PG 4.7% | Australia AU 3.4% | 0 | 0 |
Drill down by region
Constituent country probabilities for each region. The evidence weight column shows how much each country contributes to its region's weighted average — a country with weight 1000 dominates more than one with weight 1.
Africa africa
30 countries · 1 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt EG | 41.0% | 41.7% | 43.7% | 708 | |
| Algeria DZ | 4.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 467 | |
| DR Congo CD | 1.0% | 2.5% | 6.1% | 1 | |
| Cameroon CM | 1.0% | 2.5% | 6.0% | 1 | |
| Mali ML | 1.6% | 1.9% | 5.9% | 1 | |
| Tanzania TZ | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 8 | |
| Niger NE | 1.0% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 1 | |
| Uganda UG | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 1 | |
| Congo CG | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 1 | |
| Senegal SN | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 1 | |
| Libya LY | 1.7% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 212 | |
| Sudan SD | 1.0% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 20 | |
| Burkina Faso BF | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3 | |
| Ivory Coast CI | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 56 | |
| Eritrea ER | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.8% | 1 | |
| Morocco MA | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 447 | |
| Madagascar MG | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 1 | |
| Nigeria NG | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 69 | |
| Botswana BW | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 1 | |
| Gabon GA | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 1 | |
| Zimbabwe ZW | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3 | |
| South Africa ZA | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 142 | |
| Angola AO | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 3 | |
| Kenya KE | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 145 | |
| Ethiopia ET | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 435 | |
| Rwanda RW | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2 | |
| Ghana GH | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 1 | |
| Tunisia TN | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 134 | |
| Mozambique MZ | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 1 | |
| Zambia ZM | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 1 |
Asia asia
49 countries · 2 ≥25% · 2 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan PK | 95.0% | 95.0% | 95.0% | 938 | |
| Uzbekistan UZ | 58.2% | 61.0% | 63.1% | 232 | |
| Armenia AM | 4.8% | 9.0% | 19.8% | 142 | |
| Thailand TH | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 755 | |
| Tajikistan TJ | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 2 | |
| Bahrain BH | 1.4% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 88 | |
| Cambodia KH | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 203 | |
| Japan JP | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 143 | |
| Afghanistan AF | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 2 | |
| Hong Kong HK | 1.1% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 97 | |
| Kazakhstan KZ | 1.3% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 645 | |
| Maldives MV | 1.0% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 1 | |
| Indonesia ID | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 766 | |
| Sri Lanka LK | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 17 | |
| Philippines PH | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 145 | |
| South Korea KR | 1.0% | 1.8% | 5.0% | 140 | |
| Qatar QA | 1.5% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 350 | |
| Azerbaijan AZ | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 325 | |
| Cyprus CY | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 1 | |
| Turkey TR | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 951 | |
| Bhutan BT | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 1 | |
| Iran IR | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 1101 | |
| Jordan JO | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 283 | |
| Palestine PS | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| United Arab Emirates AE | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 714 | |
| Kyrgyzstan KG | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 1 | |
| Iraq IQ | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 583 | |
| Kuwait KW | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 103 | |
| China CN | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 1334 | |
| Yemen YE | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 190 |
World world
148 countries · 3 ≥25% · 2 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| per-country detail unavailable | |||||
MENA mena
19 countries · 1 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt EG | 41.0% | 41.7% | 43.7% | 708 | |
| Algeria DZ | 4.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 467 | |
| Jordan JO | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 283 | |
| Bahrain BH | 1.4% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 88 | |
| Tunisia TN | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 134 | |
| Libya LY | 1.7% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 212 | |
| Sudan SD | 1.0% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 20 | |
| Qatar QA | 1.5% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 350 | |
| Turkey TR | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 951 | |
| Morocco MA | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 447 | |
| Palestine PS | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| United Arab Emirates AE | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 714 | |
| Iraq IQ | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 583 | |
| Kuwait KW | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 103 | |
| Yemen YE | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 190 | |
| Syria SY | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 251 | |
| Lebanon LB | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 218 | |
| Saudi Arabia SA | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 477 | |
| Oman OM | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 249 |
Americas americas
23 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina AR | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 142 | |
| Haiti HT | 1.1% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 1 | |
| Mexico MX | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 147 | |
| Chile CL | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 77 | |
| United States US | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 147 | |
| Bolivia BO | 1.5% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 2 | |
| Brazil BR | 1.0% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 147 | |
| Uruguay UY | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 9 | |
| Dominican Republic DO | 1.3% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 2 | |
| Peru PE | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 20 | |
| Panama PA | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 10 | |
| Canada CA | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 145 | |
| Paraguay PY | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| Costa Rica CR | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 1 | |
| Honduras HN | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 97 | |
| Guatemala GT | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 1 | |
| Colombia CO | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 137 | |
| Puerto Rico PR | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 1 | |
| Ecuador EC | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 1 | |
| Venezuela VE | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 810 | |
| Cuba CU | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 240 | |
| Nicaragua NI | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 1 | |
| Jamaica JM | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 16 |
Europe europe
39 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus BY | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 664 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina BA | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 4 | |
| Bulgaria BG | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 103 | |
| Monaco MC | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 1 | |
| United Kingdom GB | 1.6% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 146 | |
| Greece GR | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 139 | |
| Estonia EE | 1.5% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 1 | |
| Ukraine UA | 1.6% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 148 | |
| Finland FI | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 1 | |
| Croatia HR | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 1 | |
| Italy IT | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 145 | |
| Latvia LV | 2.2% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 1 | |
| Ireland IE | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 1 | |
| Hungary HU | 1.1% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3 | |
| Russia RU | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 1438 | |
| Lithuania LT | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| Sweden SE | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| Netherlands NL | 1.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 27 | |
| Romania RO | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 134 | |
| Montenegro ME | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 1 | |
| Slovenia SI | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 1 | |
| Iceland IS | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 1 | |
| Moldova MD | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 1 | |
| Switzerland CH | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 1 | |
| Czech Republic CZ | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 1 | |
| Spain ES | 1.0% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 147 | |
| Luxembourg LU | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 1 | |
| Poland PL | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 144 | |
| France FR | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 147 | |
| North Macedonia MK | 1.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 114 |
Oceania oceania
7 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiji FJ | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 1 | |
| Papua New Guinea PG | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 1 | |
| Tonga TO | 1.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 1 | |
| Samoa WS | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 1 | |
| Guam GU | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 1 | |
| Australia AU | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 145 | |
| New Zealand NZ | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 17 |
Methodology
Aggregation: Route A (cheap). For each region we pull the existing per-country /v1/forecast/{cc}/7day output for every constituent country and take an evidence-volume-weighted mean of the per-country max risk over the next 7 days. Weights are the number of evidence rows the country has produced in the last 30 days (floored at 1.0 so quiet countries still contribute). The headline number is weighted_avg_probability_7d.
Why evidence weighting, not population? A country's probability of a shutdown isn't a per-capita quantity — it's a yes/no event for that country's network. We don't ship a population table on the forecasting server, and using population as the weight would let India and China dominate every Asian average. Weighting by evidence volume puts more confidence on countries we actually have measurements for, which is the right epistemic move when aggregating model output.
Single high-risk countries pull averages up. If MENA looks 12% but Sudan is 80%, the region number obscures that. Always check the per-country drill-down above before citing a region figure — the “# ≥50%” column tells you how many countries are doing the lifting.
Region definitions. Continents follow UN M.49 geographic groupings (Africa / Americas / Asia / Europe / Oceania). MENA is a custom grouping — UN doesn't define MENA — composed of Northern Africa (DZ, EG, LY, MA, SD, TN) plus Western Asia, minus IL, CY, AM, GE, AZ which journalists typically don't count as MENA. World is every country in the country_geography table.
Route B (per-region model) — not shipped yet. A dedicated XGBoost on region-level features (sum of evidence, count of countries in elevated risk, etc.) would be more accurate than aggregating per-country probabilities, but it needs its own label assembly and a temporal holdout before it can replace Route A. We expect to ship it after the first month of journalist feedback on which regions get most-cited.
Calibration limits. The underlying per-country forecast model is isotonic-recalibrated only for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries (see /atlas/forecast). Countries outside that set get raw uncalibrated probabilities, so the world and oceania averages should be read as relative rankings, not absolute calibrated figures.
Which countries are in each region?
The full mapping queried live from country_geography.
Africa (30 countries)
Americas (23 countries)
Asia (49 countries)
Europe (39 countries)
Mena (19 countries)
Oceania (7 countries)
API
Supported slugs: africa, americas, asia, europe, mena, oceania, world. Each region response includes a honest_caveats array.