Is censorship rising in Africa, Asia, MENA?
A single aggregate 7-day shutdown-risk level per region — evidence-volume-weighted mean of the per-country forecasts. Use this for the regional headline; click through to a region for the per-country dispersion. Because it aggregates the per-country v1 forecast, it inherits the same scope: a current-regime signal, not an onset predictor.
Generated 2026-08-14 08:50 UTC · region-forecast v1 · regions API · methodology API
Regions ranked by aggregate 7-day risk
Each row is one region. The bar shows the weighted average probability (max risk over the next 7 days, evidence-weighted across the region's countries). Max and min point to the highest- and lowest-risk constituent country.
| Region | Countries | Weighted avg 7d | Max country | Min country | # ≥25% | # ≥50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MENA mena | 19 | 13.3% | Egypt EG 44.1% | Libya LY 2.7% | 2 | 0 |
| Asia asia | 49 | 13.2% | Pakistan PK 95.0% | Mongolia MN 2.9% | 5 | 2 |
| Africa africa | 30 | 8.3% | Egypt EG 44.1% | Morocco MA 2.5% | 1 | 0 |
| World world | 148 | 7.9% | Pakistan PK 95.0% | Chile CL 2.5% | 6 | 2 |
| Europe europe | 39 | 4.5% | Iceland IS 8.0% | Czech Republic CZ 2.8% | 0 | 0 |
| Oceania oceania | 7 | 4.4% | Fiji FJ 4.8% | Papua New Guinea PG 3.4% | 0 | 0 |
| Americas americas | 23 | 3.7% | Haiti HT 16.1% | Chile CL 2.5% | 0 | 0 |
Drill down by region
Constituent country probabilities for each region. The evidence weight column shows how much each country contributes to its region's weighted average — a country with weight 1000 dominates more than one with weight 1.
MENA mena
19 countries · 2 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt EG | 39.1% | 42.2% | 44.7% | 1752 | |
| Turkey TR | 24.4% | 26.5% | 29.3% | 2638 | |
| Lebanon LB | 1.7% | 2.0% | 5.5% | 158 | |
| Sudan SD | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 24 | |
| Tunisia TN | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 133 | |
| Morocco MA | 1.0% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 1352 | |
| Palestine PS | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.7% | 5 | |
| Bahrain BH | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 113 | |
| United Arab Emirates AE | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 1215 | |
| Syria SY | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 1048 | |
| Qatar QA | 1.0% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 236 | |
| Saudi Arabia SA | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 987 | |
| Algeria DZ | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 1437 | |
| Kuwait KW | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 143 | |
| Oman OM | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 192 | |
| Yemen YE | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 276 | |
| Jordan JO | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 1185 | |
| Iraq IQ | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1583 | |
| Libya LY | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 221 |
Asia asia
49 countries · 5 ≥25% · 2 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan PK | 95.0% | 95.0% | 95.0% | 2090 | |
| Uzbekistan UZ | 59.9% | 62.5% | 64.9% | 1204 | |
| Iran IR | 22.2% | 25.9% | 29.8% | 5705 | |
| Turkey TR | 24.4% | 26.5% | 29.3% | 2638 | |
| Vietnam VN | 24.6% | 24.7% | 26.4% | 1607 | |
| Kazakhstan KZ | 6.7% | 10.2% | 18.5% | 1681 | |
| Lebanon LB | 1.7% | 2.0% | 5.5% | 158 | |
| Afghanistan AF | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 37 | |
| Laos LA | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 6 | |
| Bangladesh BD | 1.4% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 1993 | |
| Syria SY | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 1048 | |
| Armenia AM | 1.1% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 230 | |
| Cambodia KH | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 1185 | |
| Sri Lanka LK | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 54 | |
| Bhutan BT | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4 | |
| Nepal NP | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 45 | |
| Azerbaijan AZ | 1.0% | 1.8% | 4.8% | 356 | |
| Georgia GE | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 263 | |
| India IN | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 6859 | |
| Palestine PS | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.7% | 5 | |
| Brunei BN | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| Malaysia MY | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 555 | |
| Tajikistan TJ | 1.1% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 5 | |
| Japan JP | 1.2% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4593 | |
| Israel IL | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 152 | |
| North Korea KP | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 3 | |
| Qatar QA | 1.0% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 236 | |
| Thailand TH | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 1575 | |
| China CN | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2489 | |
| Indonesia ID | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 2395 |
Africa africa
30 countries · 1 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt EG | 41.5% | 41.9% | 43.6% | 1752 | |
| Mali ML | 1.3% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 1 | |
| Gabon GA | 1.7% | 2.2% | 5.3% | 2 | |
| Madagascar MG | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 1 | |
| Rwanda RW | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 10 | |
| Botswana BW | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 4 | |
| Zambia ZM | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 3 | |
| Tunisia TN | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 133 | |
| Ghana GH | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 27 | |
| Mozambique MZ | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 16 | |
| Niger NE | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 6 | |
| Uganda UG | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 342 | |
| Angola AO | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 4 | |
| Kenya KE | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 272 | |
| Tanzania TZ | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 1032 | |
| Burkina Faso BF | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 15 | |
| Cameroon CM | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 1148 | |
| Nigeria NG | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 268 | |
| DR Congo CD | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 336 | |
| Ivory Coast CI | 1.7% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 30 | |
| Senegal SN | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 65 | |
| Algeria DZ | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 1437 | |
| Morocco MA | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 1352 | |
| Zimbabwe ZW | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 44 | |
| Ethiopia ET | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 881 | |
| Congo CG | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2 | |
| Eritrea ER | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 1 | |
| Sudan SD | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 24 | |
| South Africa ZA | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4858 | |
| Libya LY | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 221 |
World world
148 countries · 6 ≥25% · 2 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| per-country detail unavailable | |||||
Europe europe
39 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland IS | 1.4% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 1 | |
| Russia RU | 1.1% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 8884 | |
| Belgium BE | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.5% | 777 | |
| Greece GR | 1.0% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 863 | |
| Bulgaria BG | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 91 | |
| Italy IT | 1.0% | 2.0% | 5.3% | 1653 | |
| Romania RO | 1.1% | 1.7% | 5.2% | 831 | |
| Serbia RS | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 96 | |
| Finland FI | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 888 | |
| Luxembourg LU | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 1 | |
| Ireland IE | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 778 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina BA | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 111 | |
| Latvia LV | 1.1% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1 | |
| Denmark DK | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 693 | |
| Croatia HR | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| Netherlands NL | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4895 | |
| Lithuania LT | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 10 | |
| Norway NO | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 766 | |
| Slovenia SI | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 6 | |
| Ukraine UA | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 376 | |
| Monaco MC | 1.0% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 1 | |
| Sweden SE | 1.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 1363 | |
| Estonia EE | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 1 | |
| Hungary HU | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 56 | |
| Albania AL | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 8 | |
| Poland PL | 1.0% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 1348 | |
| Switzerland CH | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 697 | |
| Germany DE | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 8243 | |
| France FR | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2209 | |
| Portugal PT | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 846 |
Oceania oceania
7 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia AU | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 4504 | |
| Guam GU | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 1 | |
| Papua New Guinea PG | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 2 | |
| Tonga TO | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 1 | |
| New Zealand NZ | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 756 | |
| Samoa WS | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 1 | |
| Fiji FJ | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 1 |
Americas americas
23 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haiti HT | 7.0% | 10.5% | 17.0% | 1 | |
| Cuba CU | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.3% | 257 | |
| Ecuador EC | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 31 | |
| Panama PA | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 9 | |
| Paraguay PY | 1.3% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 5 | |
| Honduras HN | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 184 | |
| Jamaica JM | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 1 | |
| Colombia CO | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 1231 | |
| Dominican Republic DO | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 9 | |
| Uruguay UY | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 1 | |
| Costa Rica CR | 1.0% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 2 | |
| Mexico MX | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 4796 | |
| Nicaragua NI | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 11 | |
| Peru PE | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 68 | |
| United States US | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 11687 | |
| Argentina AR | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 896 | |
| Guatemala GT | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3 | |
| Canada CA | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5003 | |
| Puerto Rico PR | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 1 | |
| Venezuela VE | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2454 | |
| Bolivia BO | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 21 | |
| Brazil BR | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2399 | |
| Chile CL | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 437 |
Methodology
Aggregation: Route A (cheap). For each region we pull the existing per-country /v1/forecast/{cc}/7day output for every constituent country and take an evidence-volume-weighted mean of the per-country max risk over the next 7 days. Weights are the number of evidence rows the country has produced in the last 30 days (floored at 1.0 so quiet countries still contribute). The headline number is weighted_avg_probability_7d.
Why evidence weighting, not population? A country's probability of a shutdown isn't a per-capita quantity — it's a yes/no event for that country's network. We don't ship a population table on the forecasting server, and using population as the weight would let India and China dominate every Asian average. Weighting by evidence volume puts more confidence on countries we actually have measurements for, which is the right epistemic move when aggregating model output.
Single high-risk countries pull averages up. If MENA looks 12% but Sudan is 80%, the region number obscures that. Always check the per-country drill-down above before citing a region figure — the “# ≥50%” column tells you how many countries are doing the lifting.
Region definitions. Continents follow UN M.49 geographic groupings (Africa / Americas / Asia / Europe / Oceania). MENA is a custom grouping — UN doesn't define MENA — composed of Northern Africa (DZ, EG, LY, MA, SD, TN) plus Western Asia, minus IL, CY, AM, GE, AZ which journalists typically don't count as MENA. World is every country in the country_geography table.
Route B (per-region model) — not shipped yet. A dedicated XGBoost on region-level features (sum of evidence, count of countries in elevated risk, etc.) would be more accurate than aggregating per-country probabilities, but it needs its own label assembly and a temporal holdout before it can replace Route A. We expect to ship it after the first month of journalist feedback on which regions get most-cited.
Calibration limits. The underlying per-country forecast model is isotonic-recalibrated only for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries (see /atlas/forecast). Countries outside that set get raw uncalibrated probabilities, so the world and oceania averages should be read as relative rankings, not absolute calibrated figures.
Which countries are in each region?
The full mapping queried live from country_geography.
Africa (30 countries)
Americas (23 countries)
Asia (49 countries)
Europe (39 countries)
Mena (19 countries)
Oceania (7 countries)
API
Supported slugs: africa, americas, asia, europe, mena, oceania, world. Each region response includes a honest_caveats array.