Complete returned record
{
"attribution": [
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.3673,
"pair_coevents_365d": 21,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "NG",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.2644,
"pair_coevents_365d": 68,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "CN",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.2595,
"pair_coevents_365d": 86,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "CU",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.2585,
"pair_coevents_365d": 208,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "AZ",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.2526,
"pair_coevents_365d": 157,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "BY",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.2475,
"pair_coevents_365d": 196,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": true,
"trigger": "EG",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.2284,
"pair_coevents_365d": 183,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": true,
"trigger": "IR",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.222,
"pair_coevents_365d": 215,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "RU",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.2185,
"pair_coevents_365d": 168,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": true,
"trigger": "AE",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.2185,
"pair_coevents_365d": 208,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "PK",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.2084,
"pair_coevents_365d": 84,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "TZ",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.1982,
"pair_coevents_365d": 90,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "KH",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.1968,
"pair_coevents_365d": 102,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "VN",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.1931,
"pair_coevents_365d": 171,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "MM",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.1818,
"pair_coevents_365d": 107,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": true,
"trigger": "OM",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00"
}
],
"base_prior_3d": 0.2624,
"base_rate_daily": 0.08748,
"country": "MA",
"follower_events_30d": 12,
"generated_at": "2026-10-03T12:17:03.942397+00:00",
"honest_caveats": [
"Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).",
"24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.",
"A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).",
"Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.",
"Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently — this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.",
"Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.",
"With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."
],
"horizon_days": 3,
"n_active_triggers": 15,
"noisy_or": 0.9823,
"rank": 4,
"score": 0.7198,
"status": "on_watchlist",
"trigger_window_hours": 48,
"underlying_model": {
"name": "contagion-chain-v1 (pairwise XGBoost)",
"primary_horizon_auc_h7": 0.6696949571962517,
"sidecar": "/opt/voidly-ai/ml-deploy/contagion_chain_v1.json"
}
}