Morocco: three horizons.
Current-regime risk at three horizons, each with its own uncertainty. These are not shutdown-onset predictions.
Generated 2026-10-03 18:30 UTC · model multi-horizon-h-v1 · raw JSON
Probabilities
Cite this forecast
Consistency check
The three horizons are internally consistent: longer windows capture at least the risk of shorter windows. This is the expected behavior — a 30-day window must contain any 7-day or 1-day shutdown.
36.4% ≤ 65.2% ≤ 95.2%
Top-5 SHAP features per horizon
| Horizon | Rank | Feature | SHAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | #1 | week_of_year | -0.900 |
| #2 | block_rate_roll7_mean | -0.109 | |
| #3 | block_rate_roll14_mean | +0.108 | |
| #4 | block_rate_roll7_std | -0.095 | |
| #5 | gdelt_unrest_30d | -0.047 | |
| 7-day | #1 | week_of_year | -0.417 |
| #2 | block_rate_roll7_mean | +0.411 | |
| #3 | blocked_count_roll7_mean | +0.157 | |
| #4 | block_rate_roll30_mean | +0.124 | |
| #5 | block_rate_roll7_std | -0.115 | |
| 30-day | #1 | week_of_year | -0.598 |
| #2 | critical_incident_7d | +0.478 | |
| #3 | block_rate_lag1 | +0.229 | |
| #4 | block_rate_roll14_mean | +0.146 | |
| #5 | recent_shutdown | -0.120 |
Each horizon has its own learned drivers. Positive SHAP values push the prediction up; negative values push it down. Features differ across horizons because near-term risk responds to acute signals, while month-out risk responds to slower structural factors.
Honest caveats
- Each horizon is a separate XGBoost model with its own features and its own honest evaluation. LOCO AUC across spotlight countries: 1d
0.91· 7d0.88· 30d0.84. - 30-day forecasts inherently have wider conformal intervals (more time = more uncertainty). A wide interval is not a bug — it's honesty.
- These numbers are not guarantees. A 70% probability does not mean a shutdown is certain; a 20% probability does not mean you're safe.
- See /atlas/multi-horizon for the cross-country index, or /atlas/models for the full model registry.
Related
- /atlas/forecast/ma — 7-day calibrated forecast with drivers
- /ma — Morocco country profile
- /atlas/multi-horizon — all spotlight countries with 30d probability
- /v1/forecast/MA/multi-horizon — raw JSON
About this view
How the current-regime shutdown-risk level for Morocco reads over 1 day, 7 days, and 30 days. Each horizon uses its own XGBoost model with per-horizon SHAP attribution and a 90% conformal interval. These are current-regime risk signals, not onset predictions — see the scope note below.