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Atlas · AI-ready briefings

Today's briefings

One quotable paragraph per country, stitched from the calibrated forecast, recent incidents, top model drivers, and 7-day trend. Updated every 30 minutes. Each card has a link to the raw JSON for AI-agent consumption.

Source endpoint: /v1/atlas/explain/{country} · CC BY 4.0

LOW · 5%

Belarus censorship outlook

Risk band: LOW — 5% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 40%].

Top model drivers: month (↓ 0.048), incident_count_7d (↓ 0.038), block_rate_lag1 (↑ 0.027).

Risk trending UP: forecast moved +7 percentage points over the last week.

No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 6 over the past 7 days.

Most recent: BY-2026-1492 — Censorship detected in BY (severity critical, observed 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z).

See /atlas/forecast/by for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/by for the prediction history, and /by for the country profile.

ELEVATED · 44%

Egypt censorship outlook

Risk band: ELEVATED — 44% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [9%, 79%].

Top model drivers: month (↓ 0.029), week_of_year (↓ 0.029), critical_incident_7d (↑ 0.025).

Risk trending down: forecast moved -29 percentage points over the last week.

No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 9 over the past 7 days.

Most recent: EG-2026-1642 — Censorship detected in EG (severity critical, observed 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z).

See /atlas/forecast/eg for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/eg for the prediction history, and /eg for the country profile.

Cuba CU

LOW · 3%

Cuba censorship outlook

Risk band: LOW — 3% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 38%].

Top model drivers: block_rate_roll7_std (↓ 0.026), week_of_year (↓ 0.023), gdelt_protests_7d (↓ 0.013).

Risk trending down: forecast moved -8 percentage points over the last week.

No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 1 over the past 7 days.

Most recent: CU-2026-0585 — Internet censorship detected in Cuba (severity critical, observed 2026-08-09T00:00:00Z).

See /atlas/forecast/cu for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/cu for the prediction history, and /cu for the country profile.

HIGH · 95%

Pakistan censorship outlook

Risk band: HIGH — 95% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [60%, 100%].

Top model drivers: month (↓ 0.045), blocked_count_roll14_mean (↓ 0.028), critical_incident_7d (↑ 0.022).

Risk trending down: forecast moved -13 percentage points over the last week.

No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 6 over the past 7 days.

Most recent: PK-2026-1675 — Censorship detected in PK (severity critical, observed 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z).

See /atlas/forecast/pk for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/pk for the prediction history, and /pk for the country profile.

WATCH · 28%

Myanmar censorship outlook

Risk band: WATCH — 28% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 63%].

Top model drivers: month (↓ 0.064), critical_incident_7d (↑ 0.023), week_of_year (↓ 0.018).

Risk trending down: forecast moved -16 percentage points over the last week.

No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 8 over the past 7 days.

Most recent: MM-2026-2034 — Censorship detected in MM (severity critical, observed 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z).

See /atlas/forecast/mm for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/mm for the prediction history, and /mm for the country profile.

WATCH · 16%

Kazakhstan censorship outlook

Risk band: WATCH — 16% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 51%].

Top model drivers: block_rate_lag1 (↓ 0.029), month (↓ 0.024), week_of_year (↓ 0.023).

Risk trending down: forecast moved -29 percentage points over the last week.

1 incident detected in the last 24 hours (3 in the last 7 days).

Most recent: KZ-2026-0425 — Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan (severity critical, observed 2026-08-12T10:20:00Z).

Upcoming event drivers: Kazakh National Congress in 16d; Kazakh National Congress in 15d; Kazakh National Congress in 14d; Kazakh National Congress in 4d; Kazakh National Congress in 11d.

See /atlas/forecast/kz for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/kz for the prediction history, and /kz for the country profile.

For AI agents

Each country's narrative is available at /v1/atlas/explain/{country} as JSON. Response shape:

{
  "schema": "voidly-atlas-explain/v1",
  "country": "IR",
  "country_name": "Iran",
  "headline_one_line": "Iran is currently in the HIGH band with a 7-day peak forecast of 89%",
  "markdown": "## Iran censorship outlook\n\n**Risk band: HIGH** — 89% max...",
  "structured": {
    "max_risk": 0.886,
    "max_risk_day": 7,
    "interval_90": [0.84, 0.93],
    "top_features": [...],
    "recent_incidents_24h": 0,
    "recent_incidents_7d": 5,
    "last_incident": {...},
    "trend_7d_delta": 0.799
  },
  "sources": { "endpoints_called": ["predict_risk", "incidents_table", "sentinel_forecasts"] }
}

Cache TTL: 15 min on the worker edge, 30 min ISR on this page. For a single-call dashboard digest aggregating all signals at once, use /v1/atlas/digest.

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