Belarus BY
Belarus censorship outlook
Risk band: LOW — 5% max forecast over the next 7 days.
90% conformal interval: [0%, 40%].
Top model drivers: month (↓ 0.048), incident_count_7d (↓ 0.038), block_rate_lag1 (↑ 0.027).
Risk trending UP: forecast moved +7 percentage points over the last week.
No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 6 over the past 7 days.
Most recent: BY-2026-1492 — Censorship detected in BY (severity critical, observed 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z).
See /atlas/forecast/by for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/by for the prediction history, and /by for the country profile.