The Voidly Atlas Score v2
Composite censorship score per country, 0–100, A–F grades. v2 fixes the v1 bug where chronic-blockers (RU, CN, KP) graded B− despite heavy structural censorship, because v1 over-weighted change-vs-level. v2 adds a 50% structural baseline so chronic blockers grade correctly.
Updated every 10 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · v1 (legacy)
Top grade movers (v1 → v2)
Countries whose letter grade changed when we switched from v1 (change-weighted) to v2 (level-aware). Positive = stricter (e.g. B− → F because chronic baseline now counts); negative = looser (e.g. D → C because acute spike was overweighted in v1).
30 watched countries · v2 vs v1
| # | Country | v2 grade | v1 grade | v2 score | v1 score | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pakistan PK | F | D | 86.2 | 65.3 | +20.9 |
| 2 | Uzbekistan UZ | F | — | 79.5 | — | — |
| 3 | Egypt EG | F | B | 78.5 | 44.8 | +33.7 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan AZ | D | — | 72.7 | — | — |
| 5 | Iran IR | D | B- | 72.6 | 29.2 | +43.4 |
| 6 | Bangladesh BD | D | B- | 72.5 | 28.9 | +43.6 |
| 7 | Russia RU | D | B- | 72.5 | 28.8 | +43.7 |
| 8 | Venezuela VE | D | B- | 72.5 | 28.8 | +43.7 |
| 9 | AE AE | D | B- | 71.8 | 20.5 | +51.3 |
| 10 | Belarus BY | D | B- | 71.8 | 29.7 | +42.1 |
| 11 | India IN | D | B- | 71.8 | 28.9 | +42.9 |
| 12 | Thailand TH | D | B- | 71.7 | 29.7 | +42.0 |
| 13 | QA QA | D | B- | 71.6 | 21.5 | +50.1 |
| 14 | Saudi Arabia SA | D | B- | 71.5 | 28.8 | +42.7 |
| 15 | Vietnam VN | D | B- | 71.2 | 28.4 | +42.8 |
| 16 | Turkey TR | D | B- | 71.1 | 29.3 | +41.8 |
| 17 | Indonesia ID | D | B- | 70.9 | 29.1 | +41.8 |
| 18 | SG SG | D | B- | 70.9 | 22.9 | +48.0 |
| 19 | Kazakhstan KZ | D | B- | 70.8 | 24.6 | +46.2 |
| 20 | China CN | D | B- | 70.7 | 24.0 | +46.7 |
| 21 | Eritrea ER | D | B- | 70.7 | 23.7 | +47.0 |
| 22 | IQ IQ | D | — | 70.7 | — | — |
| 23 | North Korea KP | D | B- | 70.7 | 24.6 | +46.1 |
| 24 | Turkmenistan TM | D | B- | 70.6 | 24.5 | +46.1 |
| 25 | JO JO | D | — | 70.4 | — | — |
| 26 | Malaysia MY | D | B- | 70.2 | 29.0 | +41.2 |
| 27 | KH KH | D | A | 69.5 | 16.0 | +53.5 |
| 28 | Myanmar MM | D | B- | 68.0 | 23.9 | +44.1 |
| 29 | Morocco MA | D | A | 67.8 | 16.9 | +50.9 |
| 30 | Tanzania TZ | D | — | 67.5 | — | — |
Why v2 — fixing change-vs-level
v1 of the Atlas Score weighted CHANGE (forecast + trend + recent incidents) at 90% and LEVEL (calibration quality) at only 10%. The consequence: countries like Russia and China graded B− despite heavy ongoing censorship, simply because nothing was actively changing this week. Egypt and Iran — same risk tier but spiking — graded D−F.
v2 adds a 50% structural baseline component derived from the past 12 months of censorship-weighted incidents, with a curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries (KP, TM, ER). Censorship incidents are weighted 3× heavier than network disruptions to discount upstream-outage noise. Confidence is tracked separately (0–1 field) and does not add to the score.
| Component | Weight |
|---|---|
| Structural baseline (12mo censorship + tier floor) | 50 pts |
| 30-day average forecast probability | 20 pts |
| Current 7-day max risk (active spike) | 15 pts |
| 24h incident density | 10 pts |
| Anomaly disagreement signal | 5 pts |
v2 fixes v1's change-vs-level bug. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) now score high based on their 12-month baseline + curated risk tier. v1 remains live at /v1/atlas/score for backward compatibility.
Related
- /atlas/score — v1 (still served for backward compatibility)
- /atlas/multi-horizon — 1d/7d/30d forecasts (v2 uses the 30d average)
- /atlas/changelog — full model registry timeline
- /atlas/models — per-model deep dive