VE · per-country backtest
Venezuela forecast vs reality
Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Venezuela, plotted against what actually happened. 112 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.
Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →
Forecasts evaluated
112
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
58.0%
65/112 correct
Brier score
0.595
lower is better
Observed positive rate
94%
mean predicted 25%
Forecast time series
Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.
Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)
All 112 predictions (newest first)
| Eval date | Forecast | Pred ≥ 0.5? | Observed? | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6 | 49.6% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Aug 5 | 49.4% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Aug 4 | 30.9% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Aug 3 | 29.4% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Aug 2 | 39.2% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Aug 1 | 47.0% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jul 31 | 48.7% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jul 30 | 43.4% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Jul 29 | 62.5% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 28 | 63.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 27 | 68.7% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 26 | 59.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 25 | 59.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 24 | 53.8% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 23 | 51.2% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 22 | 46.7% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 21 | 51.7% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 20 | 5.2% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jul 19 | 40.4% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 18 | 37.6% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 17 | 43.4% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 16 | 43.4% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 15 | 43.4% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 14 | 44.0% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 13 | 41.5% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 12 | 58.3% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 11 | 62.5% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 10 | 52.0% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 9 | 50.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 8 | 46.9% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 7 | 71.9% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 6 | 71.9% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 5 | 62.9% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 4 | 61.3% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 3 | 65.8% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 2 | 70.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jul 1 | 79.8% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jun 30 | 74.4% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jun 29 | 65.0% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jun 28 | 55.6% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jun 27 | 6.9% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 26 | 6.5% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 25 | 6.4% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 24 | 5.8% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 23 | 35.4% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jun 22 | 42.6% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jun 21 | 4.7% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 20 | 4.6% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 19 | 4.7% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 18 | 4.7% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 17 | 3.6% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 16 | 4.4% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 15 | 4.1% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 14 | 5.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jun 13 | 4.0% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 12 | 5.2% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jun 11 | 3.7% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 10 | 5.9% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Jun 9 | 4.2% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jun 8 | 4.7% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
How to read this
- Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
- Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
- Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
- Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.
Related
- /atlas/forecast/ve — current 7-day calibrated forecast for Venezuela with SHAP drivers
- /ve — Venezuela country page (current state, recent incidents)
- /sentinel/backtest — global reliability diagram + per-country comparison table
- Calibration refit writeup