IranIR
stable (+0.2pp)30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.
Peak day
18.6%
d9 · 2026-06-24
Floor day
1.9%
d16 · 2026-07-01
30-day delta
+0.2pp
d30 vs d1 probability
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 14.6%
2026-06-16
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.021
- gdelt_conflict_tone_7d+0.014
- week_of_year-0.013
day 77.1%
2026-06-22
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.021
- gdelt_conflict_tone_7d+0.014
- week_of_year-0.013
day 143.7%
2026-06-29
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.021
- gdelt_conflict_tone_7d+0.014
- week_of_year-0.013
day 304.8%
2026-07-15
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.021
- gdelt_conflict_tone_7d+0.014
- week_of_year-0.013
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-06-16 | 4.6% | [0%, 48%] |
| d7 | 2026-06-22 | 7.1% | [0%, 72%] |
| d14 | 2026-06-29 | 3.7% | [0%, 73%] |
| d30 | 2026-07-15 | 4.8% | [0%, 83%] |
Spotlight countries