IranIR
stable (+0.7pp)30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.
Peak day
9.1%
d14 · 2026-08-27
Floor day
1.2%
d7 · 2026-08-20
30-day delta
+0.7pp
d30 vs d1 probability
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 11.9%
2026-08-14
- month-0.078
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.050
- critical_incident_7d+0.046
day 71.2%
2026-08-20
- month-0.078
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.050
- critical_incident_7d+0.046
day 149.1%
2026-08-27
- month-0.078
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.050
- critical_incident_7d+0.046
day 302.6%
2026-09-12
- month-0.078
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.050
- critical_incident_7d+0.046
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-08-14 | 1.9% | [0%, 46%] |
| d7 | 2026-08-20 | 1.2% | [0%, 66%] |
| d14 | 2026-08-27 | 9.1% | [0%, 78%] |
| d30 | 2026-09-12 | 2.6% | [0%, 81%] |
Spotlight countries