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Belarus BY

stable (+4.3pp)

Follow the model’s 30-day path. Read the probability and uncertainty together.

30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band

model trajectory_v1
0%25%50%75%100%d1d7d14d21d30peak d18 52%
mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Peak day
51.8%
d18 · 2026-10-21
Floor day
1.9%
d7 · 2026-10-10
30-day delta
+4.3pp
d30 vs d1 probability

Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)

day 18.3%
2026-10-04
  • week_of_year-0.068
  • gdelt_unrest_30d-0.027
  • month-0.026
day 71.9%
2026-10-10
  • week_of_year-0.068
  • gdelt_unrest_30d-0.027
  • month-0.026
day 1446.0%
2026-10-17
  • week_of_year-0.068
  • gdelt_unrest_30d-0.027
  • month-0.026
day 3012.6%
2026-11-02
  • week_of_year-0.068
  • gdelt_unrest_30d-0.027
  • month-0.026

Honest caveats

  • Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
  • Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
  • Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
  • Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
  • SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.

Sample horizons

DayDateP(shutdown)90% interval
d12026-10-048.3%[0%, 52%]
d72026-10-101.9%[0%, 67%]
d142026-10-1746.0%[0%, 100%]
d302026-11-0212.6%[0%, 91%]
Spotlight countries
About this view

30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.