7-day shutdown forecast · calibrated

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 35% risk

A seven-day view of the current regime, with drivers and supporting evidence. This is not a shutdown-onset prediction.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 70%] — empirical coverage 90.3% (target 90%).

Per-day risk

Dashed line: 50% threshold. Bars colored by risk band.

Reading this forecast & citation

The Voidly Sentinel model scores Bosnia and Herzegovina at a peak 35.3% shutdown-risk level over the next 7 days, highest on day 1 (Sun, Oct 4). Average across the window: 12%. This is a current-regime risk reading, not a prediction that a new shutdown will start — see the scope note below.

Honest scope: this is a current-regime risk signal, not a shutdown-onset predictor. It reliably flags countries already in a sustained blocking regime; on the days a new shutdown actually begins its skill is at/below chance (transition-row AUC ~0.33). Why →

Per-day drivers

Date	Risk	Drivers
Sat, Oct 3	25% · Background	Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 1d · Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 1d · Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 28d · Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 28d
Sun, Oct 4	35% · Watch	Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency · Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen · Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 27d · Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 27d
Mon, Oct 5	3% · Low	Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 26d · Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 26d
Tue, Oct 6	4% · Low	Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 25d · Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 25d
Wed, Oct 7	7% · Low	Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 24d · Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 24d
Thu, Oct 8	5% · Low	Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 23d · Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 23d
Fri, Oct 9	8% · Low	Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 22d · Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 22d
Sat, Oct 10	7% · Low	Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Represen in 21d · Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency in 21d

What drove the prediction

Top features by signed contribution to today's risk score. Positive (↑) features push the prediction higher; negative (↓) features push it lower.

↓block_rate_roll14_mean-0.034
↓week_of_year-0.034
↓block_rate_roll30_mean-0.026

Similar past event

The model found a similar event in the corpus. Reading the incident report tells you what “35% risk for Bosnia and Herzegovina” looked like when it actually happened.

BA-2026-0086critical

censorship in BA · Tue, Sep 29

Recent evidence

Live measurements from upstream networks supporting this forecast. Click any link to view the raw data on the source.

ooniinterferencehttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=BA&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies2026-10-02
ooniinterferencehttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=BA&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies2026-10-02
ooniinterferencehttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=BA&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-01&until=2026-10-02&only=anomalies2026-10-01

Honest caveats

What this forecast is — and is not

The 7-day forecast is a current-regime risk signal: it reliably tells you which countries are currently in a sustained internet-blocking regime. It is not a shutdown-onset predictor — it does not reliably call a new shutdown before it happens.

On an honest forward-temporal split (train on the past, test only on the strictly-future window) the production model scores AUC 0.589 on its raw label — near chance.
The label target_7day is a 7-day sliding window, so it is 98.9% autocorrelated day-to-day. A trivial predict-yesterday baseline scores AUC 0.957 — high numbers here mean “what is blocked stays blocked,” not predictive skill.
On the rows where a shutdown actually begins (transitions) the forecast scores AUC ~0.33 — below chance.

Use it to see where censorship is entrenched today and to read the SHAP drivers + conformal interval — not as an early-warning siren. Read the full honest re-evaluation →

Calibration was refit on 2026-05-20 on 810 live outcomes — it's good for the 30 watched censoring countries but will drift if the world changes. Nightly recalibration runs at 04:30 UTC.
A 70% forecast doesn't mean a shutdown is guaranteed; a 20% forecast doesn't mean it's safe. The 90% conformal interval is the honest uncertainty band.
For long-form methodology see /methodology and the calibration refit finding.

Model version: v1@2026-09-27T02:11:03.341768

/ba — full country profile with recent incidents + ISP breakdown
/atlas/elections — all 90-day election forecasts ranked by risk
/sentinel/calibration — live model-honesty dashboard + feature importance
/v1/sentinel/current_risk/BA — raw JSON

About this view

Calibrated via isotonic refit on 810 live outcomes (2026-05-20). See calibration drift → · Bosnia and Herzegovina country profile →