voidly
IR · per-country backtest

Iran forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Iran, plotted against what actually happened. 59 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
59
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
69.5%
41/59 correct
Brier score
0.654
lower is better
Observed positive rate
88%
mean predicted 16%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 8

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 59 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 85.0%—shutdown✗
Jun 74.0%—shutdown✗
Jun 63.9%—shutdown✗
Jun 54.0%—shutdown✗
Jun 43.9%—shutdown✗
Jun 33.8%—shutdown✗
Jun 25.2%—no event✓
Jun 113.7%—shutdown✗
May 3140.4%↑shutdown✓
May 3114.8%—shutdown✗
May 3014.8%—shutdown✗
May 2918.0%↑shutdown✓
May 2880.0%↑shutdown✓
May 2873.7%↑shutdown✓
May 2815.6%↑shutdown✓
May 2780.0%↑shutdown✓
May 2717.7%↑shutdown✓
May 2616.1%↑shutdown✓
May 2516.9%↑shutdown✓
May 2414.2%↑shutdown✓
May 23100.0%↑shutdown✓
May 2313.0%↑shutdown✓
May 2226.0%↑shutdown✓
May 2212.0%↑shutdown✓
May 2187.0%↑shutdown✓
May 2011.4%↑shutdown✓
May 1912.2%↑no event✗
May 1811.4%↑no event✗
May 1710.6%↑shutdown✓
May 168.7%↑shutdown✓
May 157.1%↑shutdown✓
May 146.1%↑shutdown✓
May 136.1%↑shutdown✓
May 128.4%↑shutdown✓
May 117.1%↑shutdown✓
May 107.2%↑shutdown✓
May 96.4%↑shutdown✓
May 86.7%↑shutdown✓
May 74.8%—shutdown✗
May 67.3%↑no event✗
May 59.4%↑no event✗
May 49.5%↑no event✗
May 35.8%↑no event✗
May 28.6%↑shutdown✓
May 18.6%↑shutdown✓
Apr 309.1%↑shutdown✓
Apr 299.6%↑shutdown✓
Apr 289.5%↑shutdown✓
Apr 277.9%↑shutdown✓
Apr 268.9%↑shutdown✓
Apr 257.6%↑shutdown✓
Apr 245.1%↑shutdown✓
Apr 237.9%↑shutdown✓
Apr 226.7%↑shutdown✓
Apr 216.4%↑shutdown✓
Apr 206.1%↑shutdown✓
Apr 194.9%—shutdown✗
Apr 184.0%—shutdown✗
Apr 176.1%↑shutdown✓

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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