voidly
SG · per-country backtest

SG forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for SG, plotted against what actually happened. 13 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
13
since May 21
Accuracy @ 0.5
0.0%
0/13 correct
Brier score
0.248
lower is better
Observed positive rate
0%
mean predicted 49%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50May 21Jun 1

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 13 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 144.8%↑no event✗
May 3143.7%↑no event✗
May 3043.2%↑no event✗
May 2945.6%↑no event✗
May 2844.8%↑no event✗
May 2744.2%↑no event✗
May 2644.5%↑no event✗
May 2556.7%↑no event✗
May 2456.2%↑no event✗
May 2356.3%↑no event✗
May 2248.9%↑no event✗
May 2160.0%↑no event✗
May 2154.3%↑no event✗

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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